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Term of the Day - French OATs
French OATs — (short for Obligations Assimilables du Trésor) are France’s benchmark medium and long-term government bonds. In global fixed income and FX, they’re viewed as one of the core eurozone sovereign instruments, sitting alongside German Bunds and Italian BTPs. The maturities range from 2 to 50 years, issued by the French Treasury (Agence France Trésor) to fund national debt.
They are one step below German Bunds in terms of perceived safety and are:
Highly liquid
Euro-denominated
Issued via auction and syndicated deals
Used as benchmarks across the European curve If you’re positioned in EUR/USD, EUR/JPY, or trading cross-asset macro, OATs signal:
Relative value vs German Bunds
The OAT–Bund spread is a critical gauge of:
Eurozone political stress
French sovereign risk sentiment
Core–periphery divergence
Risk appetite within Europe
Widening spreads → risk-off
Tightening spreads → risk-on
Forward rate expectations:
Moves in the 2Y and 10Y OAT curve feed into EUR rate expectations, which spill into EUR FX pricing.
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Inside This 60-Minute Masterclass, You’ll Learn:
➦ A step-by-step process to estimate the future with better accuracy — by asking better questions. Borrowed from Enrico Fermi, who once asked: "How many piano tuners are there in Chicago?" The answer will change how you think about forecasting forever.
➦ A simple format to assign a probability and an end date to any forecast - No more vague market views, a real framework you can use immediately.
➦ Why governments and intelligence agencies produce the best forecasts in the world and how to think like they do - with a few straightforward steps, I'll show you how to approach a forecast the way the CIA does.
➦ Reading resources that will make you a sharper, more structured thinker - including a shameless plug for Philip Tetlock's Superforecasting, one of the best books ever written on prediction. Buy it. Seriously.
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